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Copyright 2007, 2009 by Craig Tyle. All rights reserved.
Baseball 5.0
Introduction. Baseball 5.0 is a simplified dice baseball simulation. It is designed for players who wish to play a simulation game that allows them to rate their own players and play a quick game. It utilizes 2 ten-sided dice and 1 20-sided die.
Baseball 5.0 was inspired by, and draws its name from, Program IV Baseball, a game from the 1970s. Program IV used 2 six-sided dice to rate batters on their batting average, homeruns and steals, and pitchers on their ERA, control and strikeout frequency.
Baseball 5.0 is a much more sophisticated simulation, for the following reasons:
The use of percentile dice allows for much more precise ratings
Batters are rated for their ability to draw a walk
Pitchers are rated for their tendency to surrender homeruns
Pitcher control and strikeout ratings are much more precise
The use of the third die avoids the need for re-rolls in most cases. Thus, most plays are resolved with a single roll.
On the other hand, Baseball 5.0 is not intended to provide a very detailed simulation. For example:
Fielding ability does not play a role in the basic game. (However, optional features allow catchers throwing ability and outfielders throwing ability to be reflected. An advanced version of the game Baseball 5.1 incorporates range factors and individualized infield errors as well.)
Batters are not rated for their strikeout propensity. (However, the game is designed such that, as a general matter, batters should for the most part strikeout as they would in real life.)
There are no park effects.
Game Play
As indicated above, the game requires two ten-sided dice and one 20-sided die. The ten sided dice should be numbered from 0-9 and either be different colors, or one of the dice should be numbered 00-90, thus producing results from 00-99. The 20 sided die should be numbered 1-20.
All three dice are rolled together for each play. The result from the 00-99 roll will vary depending on the batters and pitchers ratings. Most plays also require referring to the 20-sided die for the final result. This can involve a reference to one of the supplemental charts the Base Hit Chart, the Pop Out/Line Out Chart, the Groundout Chart or the Fly Out Chart.
Occasionally, you will have to roll once more for the final result.
Bunts and steals are optional, and require a reference to the Bunt Chart or Steal Chart, respectively. There is no hit-and-run play in Baseball 5.0; hit-and-run plays are reflected in the ratings.
00-99 Results
The results from this reading are determined as follows:
00 is an out.
01-40 is either a hit (other than a homerun) or an out, depending on the ratings. For example, lets say Derek Jeter (hit rating 1-25) is facing Ted Lilly (hit rating +1). You combine the two ratings to get 1-26. If the two ten-sided dice yield a roll of 23, Jeter has a base hit. The 20-sided die will determine which type of hit (single, double or triple), as well as any advancement by baserunners. In a few cases you will need to roll again for certain rarer plays (e.g., triples, singles + errors, batters out trying to stretch).
Now lets say Jeter was facing Roy Halladay (hit rating -3). The combined rating is 22. In this case, a roll of 23 is an out. (See below for how to determine the type of out.)
Note: When a hit results from play result 01, roll again to see if there is a wild pitch or passed ball on the next pitch by referring to the WP/PB chart.
41 is an infield error in the basic game. The batter is safe at first, and the runners advance one base. (There is also the possibility of a two-base error.)
42-49 is always an out in the basic game. (In Baseball 5.1, results 43-49 become range plays that are impacted by a players fielding ability.)
50 is a hit batter.
51-80 is a possible walk. The same approach is used as in determining whether the batter has hit safely in results 01-40 the batters walk rating is adjusted by the pitchers rating.
Note: A batters walk rating cannot be more than doubled as a result of the pitchers rating. For example, if the batter has a walk rating of 51-53 and is facing a pitcher with a control rating of +4, the walk possibilities are 51-56, not 51-57.
If the dice roll is outside the walk range, the result is an out.
If a walk results from play result 51, roll again to see if there is a wild pitch or passed ball on the next pitch by referring to the WP/PB chart.
81-99 is a possible homerun. The mechanism here is different than for hits and walks. First, the batters homerun rating indicates if there is a possible homerun. If its not a possible homerun, its an out. If it is a possible homerun, refer to the pitchers HRA rating and the 20-sided die. If the result is within the pitchers rating, its a homerun. If not, its an out.
Note: When the result is a possible homerun (i.e., within the batters range), but is an out off the pitchers rating, score it as an automatic short fly out, runners hold.
Example: Batter has an 81-83 HR? rating, and pitchers HRA rating is 1-10. If you roll an 85 and a 9, the result will be a groundout. (See Outs below.)
If the results were 83 and 9, respectively, its a homerun.
If the results were 83 and 12, its a short fly out.
Outs
Unless the result is a strikeout (see below) or a short fly out as a result of a failed homerun (per above), the type of out is determined by the second digit of the 00-99 result, as follows:
If the second digit is 0, refer to the pop out/line out chart.
If the second digit is an even number other than 0, refer to the fly out chart.
If the second digit is an odd number, refer to the groundout chart.
As noted above, in the case of an out that occurs as a result of the pitchers HRA rating, treat it as a short fly out, even if the original result was an odd number (i.e., do not treat it as a ground out in this case).
Strikeouts
If the result off the 00-99 is an out and it falls within the pitchers strikeout rating, score a strikeout.
Example: If, in the above example, Halladay had a strikeout rating of 1-30, the 23 result would be a strikeout.
Comment: It can be seen that batters with lower hit ratings (poor contact rates) will strike out more frequently, just like in real life. Thus, even without individualized batter strikeout ratings, most batters should strikeout at a rate that mirrors their real-life performance.
Bunting
To bunt, roll the twenty-sided die and refer to the appropriate bunt chart. There are separate charts for ordinary sacrifices, safety squeezes and suicide squeezes. There is no option for bunting for a base hit.
Stealing
To steal, roll two ten-sided dice. The first digit refers to the runners jump rating. If it is not within his range, he holds. If it is within his range, refer to the second digit and compare to his success rate to see if he is safe or out.
Note: A reading of 0 on the first digit requires you to refer to the pickoff/balk chart for the result (using the second digit). If the runner attempts to steal, a reading of 0 on the second digit is always an out. A reading of 1 on the second digit is a possible throwing error.
Comment: While batters have different jump ratings, most have success ratings of 1-7. This is designed to replicate actual steals, as a lower success rate would make it unwise to call for steals. Some batters with below-average stolen base percentages can get automatic caught stealing results. This is intended to ensure that overall steal percentages are accurate and help replicate runners who were 1-for-3 in real life.
Intentional walk
The manager of the team in the field can call for an intentional walk at any time.
Infield in
The manager of the team in the field can call his infield in when there is a runner on third. Refer to the Infield In Groundball Chart for groundout results.
Pitcher fatigue
After a starter faces 27 men (three times through the order), increase his hit and walk ratings by 4, and his homerun rating by 5 AFTER the next baserunner (other than an intentional walk). If the starter is pitching a shutout, do not adjust the rating until he has completed 9 innings. After the adjustment is made and he faces five more men, make another adjustment after the next baserunner.
Relievers ratings depend on whether they are a short reliever or long reliever. (A short reliever is a pitcher whose IP/G is 1.5 or less.) A long reliever can face 9 batters before he is subject to fatigue. (Make the same adjustment as above after the next baserunner.)
A short reliever can face five men. He is subject to downgrading after the next baserunner OR the start of the next inning. (Example: Rivera pitches the 9th and faces five batters. If he comes out to start the 10th, his grades are adjusted.)
Starters must rest four days between starts. If a starter comes back on three days rest, his limit is reduced from 27 to 18. A starter can also come back on two days rest with a limit of 9 batters.
Relievers are limited as follows: A reliever who pitches 2 or more innings must rest the next day or he starts the game fatigued. In addition, a reliever who appears in three consecutive days must rest one day or he comes in fatigued.
A reliever who started a game during the regular season can use the starter fatigue rating if he comes into the game early. However, he is then subject to the rest rules for starters.
Ratings
In the basic game, batters are rated for hit frequency, walk frequency, homerun frequency, and stealing. Pitchers are rated for hits allowed, control, homeruns allowed and strikeouts.
Batter hit ratings. Compute the batters total plate appearances, less intentional walks and sacrifice bunts. You can use the following formula:
TPA = AB + (BB-IBB) + HB + SF
Divide his hits (minus homeruns) by this number and multiply by 100:
100 x (H HR)/TPA
Round down to the nearest whole number. So, if the answer above is 21.67, the batter would have a hit rating of 1-21.
Note: For most ratings, you round to the nearest whole number; for the hit rating, however, you should round down. The reason for this is that batters will get some extra hits on ground balls when the infield is in.
Batter walk ratings. Divide the batters non-intentional walks by his TPA and multiply by 100. Round to the nearest whole number and start at 51 to get his walk range:
100 x (BB IBB)/TPA
If the result is 4.3, his walk rating would be 51-54.
Batter homerun ratings. Divide the batters homeruns by his TPA and multiply by 200. Round to the nearest whole number.
200 x HR/TPA
Give the batter possible homerun results starting at 81.
Example: 200 x HR/TPA results in 3.6. Round this to 4. The batter has HR? results from 81 to 84.
Note: A very few players will have a result of 20 or more. In this case, make an appropriate number of results automatic homeruns and count these results double to get the final result.
Example: 200 x HR/TPA = 20.6. This batter will have automatic homeruns at 81 and 82 (i.e., they will not be affected by the pitchers rating). This accounts for 4 out of the 21. Results 83-99 (17 results) are normal HR? results.
Note: As an optional rule for batters who hit very few homeruns (result above is greater than 0 but less than 0.5), you can give them an 81* rating. This means that the batter only homers if the 20-sided die falls within the pitchers range AND is an odd number.
Jump rating: Multiply the batters stolen bases by 1.5 and divide this by his hits (minus triples and homeruns) plus walks (excluding intentional walks) and HBs:
1.5 x SB/(H 3B HR) + (BB IBB) + HB
Refer to the following chart:
More than .32 1-9
.28 to .32 1-8
.24 to .28 1-7
.20 to .24 1-6
.16 to .20 1-5
.12 to .16 1-4
.08 to .12 1-3
.04 to .08 1-2
Up to .04 1
No steals 0
Note: If result is exactly on a cut-off (e.g., .16), use the lower rating (in that case, 1-4).
Success rating: All batters have ratings of 1-7, except:
If a batters stolen base percentage is greater than 80% and he has at least 5 steals, his rating is 1-8
If a batters stolen base percentage is greater than 90% and he has at least 10 steals, his rating is 1-9
Automatic caught stealing: If a batters stolen base percentage is under 66 2/3% (including batters who had one or more attempts but no stolen bases), give the batter a C rating. These batters can get automatic caught stealing results on hit result 13.
Pitcher hit ratings
All pitcher ratings are relative; thus, you must first compute the league average ratings.
First, compute the league average hit rating using the same formula as above. Round to the nearest tenth.
Next, compute the pitchers rating. If Batters Faced is known, use this as the denominator:
100 x (H- HR)/BF
If Batters Faced is not known, you can use the following estimate:
BF = (IP x 3) + H + BB + HB
Round the pitchers result to the nearest tenth and subtract the league average rating:
Pitcher League
Round this to the nearest whole number.
So, for example, if the league hit rating is 21.6 and the pitchers hit rate is 19.0, he will have a hit rating of -3 (19.0 21.6, rounded to the nearest whole number).
Note: Even in present-day baseball with interleague play, the vast majority of games are played in the same league, so the league average is the best benchmark.
If you are playing an interleague game, or cross-era, the benchmark rating should be the average of the two leagues. Thus, pitchers will have different ratings for these games. (As a practical matter, you can ignore this for most interleague games except in years where there is a significant disparity between the two leagues.)
Pitcher control rating
The control rating is computed similarly to the hit rating. First compute the league average; then compute the pitchers walk rate in the same manner shown.
For added accuracy, you should multiply the difference between the pitchers rate and league average by 1.1 before rounding. (This is designed to help replicate pitchers with excellent or very poor control, as they will max out vs. certain batters.) For simplicity, however, feel free to skip this step.
Pitcher Homerun Rating
In this case, the pitchers homerun rate is divided by the league average. Multiply the result by 10 and round to the nearest whole number. A pitchers HRA rating cannot be greater than 1-20 or less than 1-2.
Strikeout rating
First, compute the pitchers strikeout frequency:
100 x K/BFP
Then, add this to his rounded hit frequency as computed above (100 x H/BFP). The sum of the two is his strikeout range.
Example: Pitchers hit rate (as above) is 19. His strikeout frequency is 13.4, which rounds to 13. 19 + 13 = 32. Thus, the pitchers strikeout range is 1-32.
Some pitchers will have a result that exceeds 40. If this is the case, give the pitcher additional strikeout results counting down from 80.
Example: Pitchers strikeout frequency is 23.4; 23 + 19 = 42. Pitcher will have strikeouts at 1-40. For his extra strikeouts, the pitcher would get strikeouts on outs off results 79-80.
Note on Hitting Ratings for Pitchers
To assign hitting ratings for pitchers, you can either use the pitchers actual batting statistics or use the league average results for pitchers. I recommend a combination use actual stats for pitchers who bat frequently (e.g., 50 or more plate appearances), and the average for others.
Optional ratings
Platoon ratings. For additional realism, you can introduce platoon ratings for batters hit ratings. The recommended approach is a standard adjustment. Use the following table:
Vs. LHP Vs. RHP
RHB +1 -1
LHB -2 +1
Do not adjust switch hitters.
Note: Some switch-hitters have large platoon differentials. If stats are available, you could treat some switch-hitters as right-handed or left-handed batters, depending upon their stronger side.
You can also adjust batter homerun ratings in the same manner. I recommend only using platoon HR ratings for batters whose (unadjusted) HR? rating is at least 85.
Another alternative, if the statistics are available, is to compute separate ratings vs. right-handed and left-handed pitchers based on actual results. I believe, however, that this is generally not preferable due to small sample sizes. If using this approach, you can also compute separate walk ratings.
Hit distribution
In the basic game, all batters have the same proportion of singles, doubles and triples relative to total (non-homerun) hits. For added realism, you can compute individual breakdowns of these hits.
For the standard chart, the breakdown is as follows:
Triples: 2.5%
Doubles: 22.5%
Singles: 75%
Extra-base hit adjustment: Compute as follows:
20 x (2B+3B)/(H HR)
Round to the nearest whole number. If additional extra-base hits are needed, change results beginning at result number 6 to be the same as the result for 5.
If fewer extra-base hits are needed, change the highest double result (at result #5) to a single (play result #6).
Triple adjustment: If a batter has no triples, you can eliminate the triple result on his card. Change result 1 to a double. To determine if a batter needs additional triples, compute as follows:
20 x 3B/(H HR)
If the result is greater than 1, round to the nearest whole number and give the batter additional triples at results beginning from the number 1.
Note: Because players with few triples (less than 1.25% of non-HR hits) are rounded up to hit triples at a 2.5% rate, it is recommended that players with a triples rate of between 2.5% and 5% not be rounded up. For simplicity, I do not recommend trying to reproduce triples more finely.
Note: It is advisable to limit these adjustments for players with fewer plate appearances, due to small sample sizes. I recommend the following rule for players with 400 or more plate appearances, make adjustments as above. For players with 200 to 400 plate appearances, limit changes to (if necessary) result number 1 (triple), number 5 (change double to single) and number 6 (change single to double). Do not adjust players with fewer than 200 plate appearances.
Hit by Pitch
In order to replicate batters who are frequently hit by a pitch, you may give them additional hit by pitch results. To compute, divide the batters times hit by the number of plate appearances, times 100. If the result is 2% or greater, round to the nearest whole number, subtract one and give the batter that number of additional hit batter results, counting back from result number 80.
Bases Empty/Men on Base
In order for pitchers to more precisely reflect their propensity to allow runs (and, thus, their ERAs), you may wish to rate pitchers separately in situations where the bases are empty vs. when there are men on base. If you choose this option, I recommend only using it for the hit rating. You can obtain the needed stats for recent seasons at baseball-reference.com.
Subjective Ratings
For additional realism, you can use certain subjective ratings, as described below. Use your best judgment in assigning these ratings. (If you own other table games, these can be a good guide.)
Runner Speed
In order to use runner speed, you should use either the advanced or intermediate charts for hits and fly outs. In the case of the advanced charts, the offensive manager will have the option in certain cases to take an additional base on a single or double, or to advance on a sacrifice fly. In the case of the intermediate charts, the number of bases a runner advances may be adjusted depending on his speed rating. Rate runners as follows:
Very fast runner: +2
Above average: +1
Average: 0
Below average: -1
Slow: -2
Outfield arms
Just as with runner speed, you can adjust results on the advanced or intermediate charts by the arm of the outfielder.
Excellent arm: -2
Above average: -1
Average: 0
Below average: +1
Weak arm: +2
Catcher throwing
On steals of second or third, you can adjust the success rating based on the catchers throwing ability. The arm ratings are the same as for outfielders.
Note: The final success rating after adjustments can never be greater than 1-9.
Pitcher hold rating
On steals of second only, you can adjust the runners jump rating based on the pitchers hold rating.
Great move: -2
Good move: -1
Average: 0
Below avg.: +1
Poor: +2
On the pickoff chart, make the opposite adjustment to the results indicating a pickoff; e.g., a pitcher with a great move would gain two additional pickoff results.
Bunting ability
You can adjust certain sacrifice results for good bunters and poor bunters.
Range factors and errors (Baseball 5.1)
For fans desiring a game that reflects fielding ability, there is an advanced version of the game that takes range factors and infield errors into account. Each fielder is assigned a fielding rating, as set forth below:
Excellent fielder: A
Above average fielder: B
Average fielder: C
Below average fielder: D
Poor fielder, or player out of position: E
Change play results 43-49 so that the second digit indicates the fielder in question. (E.g., play result 43 is a grounder to the first baseman, play result 47 is a fly ball to the leftfielder, etc.)
Refer to the 20 sided die and check vs. the appropriate chart. (There are separate charts for each fielding rating.)
Fielding ratings also come into play on bunt attempts. Pitchers and catchers do not have range plays; their ratings are used on bunt plays.
Assigning ratings: If you own another game, this can be a good guide. If you wish to employ range factors, please note that a full-time player rated B will make about 15 additional plays a year over the average player. An A fielder will turn about 30 hits into outs. The reverse is true for D ratings (15 balls will get through for hits) and E ratings (30 more hits).
Pitcher X Rating: In order to account for the extra hits on results 43-49, you need to change certain hit results on the Master Chart to outs (and do not consider any of these additional outs to be strikeouts). In order to do this, one additional rating is needed the pitcher X rating. This is computed by referring to the average range ratings for the infielders and outfielders (i.e., all positions except the pitcher and catcher) for the team the pitcher played for in real life. (Thus, even if you are in a draft league or playing an all-star game, you should use the pitchers real life teammates.). Use the following chart:
Rating Adjustment
A 0
B 0.25
C 0.5
D 0.75
E 1.0
As noted above, you need to compute an average adjustment score for each position. So, for example, if the leftfield position was shared between a B fielder and a D fielder, the score for left field would be 0.5. Total the adjustment scores for the seven positions, and round to the nearest whole number. This is the pitchers X rating. So, for example, if the total number was 3.75, the rating would 4. This means that results 1-4 on the Master Chart would be automatic outs. As noted above, you should not check for strikeouts on out results that are a result of the X rating.
Because result 1 will usually be an out, check for a wild pitch or passed ball on result 10, rather than 1.
Bunting
You can also incorporate fielding into the bunt chart. To do this, roll one ten-sided die in addition to the twenty-sided die when bunting. The ten-sided die indicates which player fields the bunt. Depending on the players range rating, certain results will be adjusted.
Errors
Infielders also have error ratings in Baseball 5.1.
To incorporate errors, change results 41 and 42 to possible errors. There is a special chart that indicates which fielder is fielding the ball (using the result on the twenty-sided die). Roll again using one ten-sided die and the 20s die. The 10s die determines if the fielder handled the ball cleanly. If so, refer to the 20-sided die to get the final result off the Groundout chart. If not, refer to the 20-sided die to see if the error is for one or two bases, as in the basic game.
Computing error ratings
Computing error ratings is a multi-step process. In summary, you (1) compute the number of errors the player would have made if he had played full time, (2) subtract from this the number of errors he is likely to make off other results on the charts (e.g., bunts, hit plus error result) and (3) divide this by the positions total error chances on results 41 and 42.
Note: I do not recommend computing individual error ratings for pitchers or part-time players (players who played less than 25% of a teams innings at the position) for sample size reasons. Assign each of these players an error rating of 5 (average rating), unless the player is playing out of position (e.g., an outfielder who played two games at third base). For these players, assign them the maximum error rating (10).
Step-by-step: First, compute the percentage of innings that the fielder played at the position. Divide the number of errors committed by the fielders by this number. (Example: Player committed 7 errors and played 50% of the time at the position. 7/0.5 = 14.)
Next, adjust this number by subtracting the number set forth below.
1B: 1
2B and SS: 6
3B: 7
Divide this number by the following:
1B: 12
2B and 3B: 30
SS: 36
Multiply by 10 and round to the nearest whole number.
Plus option: For players who committed very few errors, you can further refine the error results by taking away errors on the hit+error result, as follows (note this adjustment does not apply to firstbasemen):
If the fielders error rating above is a 1 or a 2, change the rating to a 2+ and 3+, respectively. The + indicates that the player will not make an error on the following hit + error play result: (2B 12; 3B 13; SS 20).
If the fielders error rating above is a 0, give the fielder a ++; this means he will not make an error on any hit+error result. Recompute his numerical error rating by skipping the step of subtracting 6 above. (For thirdbasemen, only subtract 1, no adjustment for secondbasemen and shortstops.)
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